US Tariff Changes Set to Disrupt

Turbulence Ahead: US Tariff Changes Set to Disrupt Global E-Commerce and Air Cargo Flows

The global airfreight market is facing fresh uncertainty following significant regulatory changes in the United States. From May 2, low-value shipments entering the US from China and Hong Kong are no longer exempt from duties. These packages, which previously benefited from an $800 de minimis threshold, will now face tariffs of up to 145%. For goods shipped via postal services, this means either a 120% duty or a flat rate of $100, which is set to double to $200 by June 1.

This shift threatens to upend one of the most important growth drivers in global air cargo over the last decade: cross-border e-commerce. Approximately 1.35 billion shipments were sent annually into the US under the previous exemption, with nearly half of China-to-US airfreight volumes comprised of e-commerce orders. The immediate impact? Cancellations of freighter flights and hints of network realignments as carriers scramble to adapt.

Leading Chinese online retailer Temu has already reduced its US ad spend significantly, anticipating lower sales volumes due to increased costs. The ripple effects of these changes go far beyond bilateral trade. According to industry experts at Xeneta, a leading air cargo analytics platform, this policy change will likely impact global trade lanes and prompt broader adjustments in airfreight strategy.
Airfreight Market Snapshot – April 2025

Global air cargo volumes rose by 4% year-on-year in April, but growth was uneven. While some lanes experienced demand spikes—such as Southeast Asia to North America (up 13% month-on-month)—others saw flat or negative movement. For instance, rates from the Middle East to Europe fell 26% year-on-year. Meanwhile, jet fuel prices dropped 24% compared to April 2024, exerting additional downward pressure on spot rates.

Despite a modest 3% increase in available capacity, the industry’s dynamic load factor—a measure of how effectively that capacity is used—fell to 57%, a three-point decline from March. Analysts note this reflects a market in limbo, with shippers unsure how long new trade dynamics will persist or what final impacts they’ll have.

What’s Next for Global Shippers?

The full implications of the US de minimis change won’t be felt until May or later, but the consequences could be profound. Not only is demand expected to drop on China–US routes, but network redeployments may benefit other markets in Europe, Africa, or Latin America. However, those gains depend on healthy consumer demand and stable trade relationships.

“This is a pivotal moment,” says Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta. “We’re watching a structural shift in e-commerce logistics. The question isn’t just how rates will move—it’s how consumer behaviour, shipping networks, and global trade will evolve.”

Air cargo companies, freight forwarders, and shippers will need to stay agile. Strategic diversification, alternative sourcing markets, and a close eye on future tariff developments will be essential in weathering what some are calling the most disruptive change to global air logistics since the COVID-19 pandemic.

At Neutral Airfreight Consultants, we continue to monitor these developments closely. Reach out to our team if you’d like tailored insights into how this could affect your supply chain.